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Chimpanzees can compete with most financial experts.
Philip Tetlock, Professor of Psychology and Management at the University of Pennsylvania, studies expertise and the architecture of good judgment. In particular, he has been interested in evaluating predictions made by experts. From 1984 to 2003, Tetlock gathered more than 28,000 predictions from 284 economic and political professionals in order to determine their accuracy, and…
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Be wary of overfitting data
What is overfitting? Overfitting is a concept in machine learning and statistics that refers to a model that is excessively complex, such as having too many parameters relative to the number of observations. An overfitted model is one that is tailored too closely to the training data and captures the noise along with the underlying…